Bitcoin’s sharp late-summer rebound has lost some momentum, but the evidence does not yet point to a clear breakdown in the rally.
Bitcoin traded around $79,150 on Monday after briefly moving above $80,000 during its August surge. The cryptocurrency gained roughly 28% during August as a weaker dollar, renewed institutional buying and expectations for more favorable U.S. crypto policy helped lift it from the low-$60,000 range. It remains far below its October 2025 record above $126,000.
The recent hesitation is visible in both price and fund flows. Bitcoin has repeatedly struggled to establish itself above $80,000, while U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded four consecutive sessions of net withdrawals last week.
From September 8 through September 11, the funds lost about $462.7 million combined. The largest withdrawal came September 10, when investors pulled roughly $282.7 million, according to Farside Investors data.
That is a meaningful reversal from August, when the same products attracted roughly $3.5 billion of net inflows.
It is not yet enough to conclude that institutional demand has disappeared.
Bitcoin ETFs brought in more than $900 million across September 3 and September 4 alone before the recent withdrawals began, and August produced 16 positive-flow sessions against only five negative ones. The shift suggests demand has cooled at the margin rather than collapsed.
The $80,000 Level Has Become the Immediate Test
Bitcoin’s inability to hold above $80,000 has created a natural dividing line for the current move.
The August rally was helped by several factors arriving together. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s plans for increased purchases of longer-dated government securities contributed to a weaker-dollar trade, while investors also responded positively to Washington’s renewed push for clearer digital-asset regulation. Bitcoin rose alongside gold as concerns about government debt and currency purchasing power returned to markets.
Those forces have become less supportive in September.
The dollar strengthened Monday as oil prices rose and investors prepared for what could be the Federal Reserve’s first rate increase in more than two years. The 10-year Treasury yield also briefly moved above 5%, increasing the appeal of interest-bearing assets and raising the hurdle for riskier investments such as crypto.
Bitcoin nevertheless climbed roughly 2% Monday to around $79,150 despite those conditions. That resilience makes it difficult to describe the August rally as finished simply because the token has not yet produced another breakout.
Options traders are also still positioning for higher prices.
Reuters reported that activity in Bitcoin options has turned more bullish, with traders building positions tied to Bitcoin reaching $80,000 or higher by December. Options positioning does not guarantee that those prices will be reached, but it shows that parts of the derivatives market have not abandoned the upside case.
Two Catalysts Could Decide the Next Move
Bitcoin now faces two unusually important events within roughly 24 hours.
The Senate is scheduled Tuesday to hold a procedural vote on the CLARITY Act, legislation designed to establish a clearer federal regulatory framework for digital assets and more clearly divide responsibilities between the SEC and CFTC.
The bill still faces substantial political obstacles and Tuesday’s vote would not make it law. But clearing the 60-vote procedural threshold would keep alive legislation that crypto exchanges, asset managers and institutional investors have followed closely because of its potential to reduce regulatory uncertainty.
Then comes the Federal Reserve.
A Reuters survey found that 85% of economists expect the Fed to raise its benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point Wednesday, while financial markets have priced roughly a 90% chance of an increase. Higher-than-desired inflation and oil prices above $100 have changed expectations quickly after investors previously anticipated the Fed would remain on hold.
For Bitcoin, the Fed’s message after the decision could matter more than the quarter-point move itself.
One rate increase is largely anticipated. A signal that several more hikes may follow would strengthen the case for high Treasury yields and a firmer dollar, both of which could make it harder for Bitcoin to regain momentum. A less aggressive path would remove some of that pressure.
The recent ETF reversal is therefore important, but it should be viewed alongside Bitcoin’s price behavior rather than in isolation.
August demonstrated that institutional money can return quickly: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs absorbed billions of dollars while Bitcoin climbed from around $60,000 toward $80,000. September has shown the other side of that trade, with several hundred million dollars leaving the funds while the cryptocurrency struggles to extend the breakout.
Bitcoin has still remained close to $80,000 despite those outflows, a stronger dollar, rising Treasury yields and growing expectations for a Fed hike.
The next test is whether fresh demand appears when Bitcoin challenges $80,000 again. A sustained move above that level accompanied by renewed ETF inflows would strengthen the case that August began a broader recovery. Another rejection combined with continued fund withdrawals would make the recent loss of momentum much harder to dismiss as simple consolidation.