Copper fell below $14,000 a metric ton on Monday, retreating further from last week’s record as fresh metal entered London warehouses and uncertainty over U.S. tariffs began reversing one of the forces that had driven prices sharply higher.
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange fell as low as $13,958 a ton, its weakest level since August 20, before trading around $14,005.50 later in the session. The metal is now down roughly 6% from the record reached Thursday, when prices had been approaching $15,000.
The pullback comes after an unusually strong run. Copper had not posted a weekly decline since June before last week, supported by constrained mine supply, expectations for long-term demand from power infrastructure and data centers, and a much more immediate rush to move metal into the United States ahead of possible tariffs.
That last part of the rally is now being questioned.
The White House has not decided whether to impose tariffs on refined copper imports, Reuters reported last week, as administration officials weigh support for domestic mining and refining against the risk of increasing costs for U.S. manufacturers. Copper dropped more than 4% when that uncertainty became clear.
Freeport-McMoRan, one of the largest publicly traded copper producers, fell another 2.4% Monday after dropping sharply following the tariff report last week. Shares closed at $69.34, their fourth consecutive decline.
Inventories Show the Physical Squeeze Is Easing
London Metal Exchange copper inventories increased by 9,600 metric tons, including 4,550 tons delivered into warehouses in Italy.
More telling was the change in copper’s short-term price structure.
Cash copper traded at a $39.25-per-ton discount to the three-month contract, widening from roughly $10 on Friday. When immediately available copper trades below metal for later delivery, it suggests buyers are under less pressure to secure supply right away.
That is a noticeable change from the physical tightness that helped support record prices.
At the same time, the United States is sitting on an unusually large stockpile.
COMEX inventories reached about 696,000 metric tons last week after increasing for 58 consecutive trading days. The streak finally ended Thursday as stocks edged lower.
The buildup was heavily influenced by tariff expectations.
Traders had been shipping copper into the U.S. because American prices carried a premium over international markets, creating an arbitrage opportunity while investors anticipated duties on refined imports. As the likelihood and timing of those tariffs became less certain, that incentive weakened.
The result is a market in which there is plenty of copper sitting in U.S. warehouses while international inventories are beginning to recover.
That does not necessarily mean the world suddenly has too much copper. It means some of the shortage reflected where metal was being stored rather than an immediate disappearance of global supply.
The Dollar Adds Another Headwind
Copper also faced pressure from a stronger U.S. dollar.
The dollar index rose 0.3% Monday to 99.41 and briefly touched its highest level since September 2 as oil prices climbed and investors increased bets that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this week.
Money markets were assigning roughly a 90% probability to a Fed rate increase on Wednesday, up from around 60% a week earlier.
A stronger dollar tends to pressure commodities priced in the currency because they become more expensive for buyers using euros, yuan and other currencies. Higher interest rates can also weaken demand for industrial commodities if tighter financial conditions slow investment and construction.
The selling was broad across metals Monday. Zinc, lead, nickel and tin all declined, with several reaching multiweek or multimonth lows.
China Sends a Mixed Demand Signal
Fresh economic data from China, the world’s largest copper consumer, provide little evidence of an immediate demand collapse but reinforce concerns about uneven growth.
Chinese industrial production increased 5.2% in August from a year earlier, accelerating from July and beating expectations. Manufacturing output rose 6.1%, while production of electrical machinery and equipment increased 9.9%.
Investment was considerably weaker.
Fixed-asset investment fell 7.2% during the first eight months of 2026, while manufacturing investment declined 2.3%.
Those figures leave copper exposed to two competing trends: expanding electricity, electronics and advanced-manufacturing demand on one side, and weak property and investment activity on the other.
The International Copper Study Group currently forecasts a relatively small 96,000-ton refined-copper surplus for 2026, followed by a larger 377,000-ton surplus in 2027. Its April forecast represented a significant change from the 150,000-ton deficit it had previously expected for this year, largely because of weaker projected usage and increased recycled-copper production.
Tariffs Could Decide Copper’s Next Move
Copper’s retreat therefore does not erase the longer-term supply argument that helped lift the metal to records. Mine disruptions, slow development of new projects and expected demand from power grids, electrification and AI infrastructure remain part of the market’s longer-term pricing.
The near-term setup is different.
Last week’s record contained a sizable premium tied to the possibility that the United States would impose tariffs on refined copper and pull even more physical metal away from other markets. Rising LME inventories and the widening discount for immediate delivery show that some of that pressure has already eased.
A Fed rate increase would add another near-term obstacle if it keeps the dollar and bond yields elevated.
The biggest catalyst, however, remains Washington. The administration has discussed a potential 15% tariff on refined copper beginning in 2027 and increasing to 30% in 2028, but no final decision has been announced.
Until that decision arrives, copper prices may continue to reflect two different markets at once: a long-term industry worried about securing enough metal for future demand, and a short-term trading environment unwinding a tariff-driven rush that pushed copper to nearly $15,000 a ton.