Russia’s newly regulated cryptocurrency market could generate as much as 4 trillion rubles, or approximately $46.4 billion, in exchange trading during its first year, according to Sberbank, as the country begins implementing its most comprehensive framework yet for digital assets.
Anatoly Popov, deputy chairman of the executive board at Sberbank, said the bank’s research division expects approximately 3.5 trillion to 4 trillion rubles of cryptocurrency trading to move through regulated exchanges during the first 12 months following legalization.
The forecast could rise substantially as Russia’s regulated digital-asset infrastructure matures.
SberCIB Investment Research projects exchange-based cryptocurrency trading could reach approximately 4.75 trillion to 5.25 trillion rubles by 2028 before climbing to around 7.5 trillion rubles, equivalent to roughly $87 billion, in 2029.
Those numbers would still represent only part of Russia’s overall cryptocurrency activity.
Popov cited Russian Finance Ministry estimates showing cryptocurrency transactions across the country were already running at approximately 50 billion rubles per day as of February.
On an annual basis, that would equal roughly 18 trillion rubles in cryptocurrency transactions.
Sberbank therefore expects only around 20% of the country’s existing crypto volume to initially migrate onto regulated exchanges.
The bank considers that projection relatively conservative because a large portion of cryptocurrency activity is expected to continue through other exchange services and alternative channels rather than immediately shifting into Russia’s new regulated infrastructure.
The gradual licensing process is another reason Sberbank does not expect the regulated market to reach its full potential immediately.
Russia’s new cryptocurrency framework takes effect September 1, 2026, but professional financial-market participants have been given additional time to obtain the licenses and regulatory approvals necessary to operate under the new system.
That means the country will effectively spend much of the first year transitioning from its existing cryptocurrency market toward a more formalized structure overseen by financial regulators.
President Vladimir Putin signed the legislation in early August after Russian lawmakers approved a sweeping framework governing the circulation of cryptocurrencies and digital rights.
The law represents a significant change in Russia’s treatment of digital assets.
Both qualified and ordinary retail investors will now be permitted to purchase cryptocurrencies through regulated intermediaries, although the two groups will operate under substantially different rules.
Non-qualified investors must first pass a knowledge test designed to ensure they understand the risks associated with cryptocurrency investments.
They will then be permitted to purchase only cryptocurrencies that meet liquidity and trading-history requirements established by the Bank of Russia.
Retail investors will generally be restricted to purchases totaling no more than 300,000 rubles annually through each intermediary.
At current exchange rates, that limit is roughly $3,600 to $3,700.
The Bank of Russia has identified bitcoin, ether and the Tether stablecoin USDT as cryptocurrencies meeting its initial requirements for public exchange trading.
Regulators evaluate cryptocurrencies using factors including market capitalization, average daily trading activity and the length of their established price history on foreign trading platforms.
The pricing history must generally extend for at least five years.
Qualified investors will face far fewer restrictions.
After completing the required testing, qualified investors will be permitted to purchase cryptocurrencies available on exchange and over-the-counter markets without the annual purchase limit imposed on ordinary retail investors.
Russia is simultaneously creating the infrastructure needed to support the new market.
The framework introduces regulated cryptocurrency exchange operators and digital depositories alongside traditional financial institutions such as brokers and asset-management companies.
Crypto exchanges will facilitate purchases and sales of digital currencies, while digital depositories will maintain records identifying ownership rights associated with cryptocurrencies and other digital assets.
Investors will also be able to conduct cryptocurrency transactions through brokers and management companies, including through organized exchange trading.
The regulatory structure goes beyond simply allowing investors to buy and sell cryptocurrencies.
Participants will eventually be able to exchange cryptocurrencies for securities and certain digital instruments issued under Russian law, including digital rights.
Foreign stablecoins will generally be treated according to many of the same regulatory requirements imposed on other cryptocurrencies.
However, Russia is maintaining an important restriction.
Cryptocurrency will remain prohibited as a general method of payment for goods and services inside the country.
A Russian consumer, for example, will not simply be able to begin using bitcoin as an ordinary replacement for rubles when purchasing domestic products.
The government is taking a very different approach to international commerce.
Exporters and importers will be allowed to use cryptocurrencies for cross-border settlements involving foreign trade contracts between Russian residents and non-residents.
Those transactions can be conducted through regulated intermediaries or, in certain circumstances, directly through cryptocurrency wallets.
Russia had already begun moving in that direction before the new domestic trading framework.
In 2024, Russian officials confirmed that bitcoin and other digital currencies were being used in international trade as the country sought alternative payment mechanisms following extensive Western financial sanctions.
Traditional international payments had become more difficult for Russian companies as banks in countries including China and Turkey became increasingly cautious about processing transactions that might expose them to secondary sanctions.
Digital assets consequently emerged as one method of settling international transactions outside conventional Western-dominated financial channels.
Russia also legalized cryptocurrency mining and experimented with the use of domestically mined bitcoin in cross-border commerce.
The latest legislation brings considerably more of the cryptocurrency industry into a formal domestic regulatory framework rather than leaving activity concentrated in offshore exchanges, informal services and experimental international arrangements.
Sberbank intends to become a major participant in that transition.
Russia’s largest lender is preparing several cryptocurrency products as the new rules take effect.
One of the bank’s more significant plans involves loans backed by cryptocurrency.
Popov has said Sberbank intends to eventually accept bitcoin, ether and USDT as collateral for loans once the necessary regulatory requirements are satisfied.
Using cryptocurrency as collateral would allow customers to obtain financing without necessarily selling their digital assets.
The bank has said it prepared for the regulatory changes in advance and already has practical experience working with cryptocurrency-related products.
Sberbank intends to adapt its existing offerings to the new legislation and gradually expand the range of products it provides as additional provisions take effect.
The institution has already offered certain cryptocurrency-linked investments to qualified investors.
Since 2025, Sberbank has provided products including structured bonds and digital financial assets whose values are connected to bitcoin and ether.
The new legal framework could allow the bank to move beyond investment products that merely track cryptocurrency prices and provide customers with more direct access to digital assets.
Sberbank is also working on a cryptocurrency wallet.
The bank plans to integrate the wallet into its existing Sber and Sber Investments applications, potentially allowing customers to manage approved digital assets alongside traditional banking and investment services.
The company has targeted early December for the rollout.
Sberbank is simultaneously developing digital-asset depository infrastructure that would provide regulated custody and recordkeeping for crypto assets.
Other major Russian financial companies are preparing similar services as competition develops around the emerging market.
The Bank of Russia has been establishing rules governing digital depositories, cryptocurrency exchanges, leveraged trading and financial-resilience requirements for companies participating in the industry.
Digital depositories will generally operate using principles resembling traditional securities depositories, maintaining formal records of customers and the assets attributed to them.
Depending on the services provided, those institutions will also face minimum capital requirements.
Financial intermediaries will be required to account for cryptocurrency exposure when calculating prudential measures designed to determine whether they have enough financial resources to withstand potential losses.
Regulators are attempting to build safeguards around an asset class known for rapid and sometimes unpredictable price movements.
The Bank of Russia has historically maintained a cautious stance toward cryptocurrency, particularly when it comes to widespread retail adoption.
The new system therefore does not represent unrestricted legalization.
Instead, Russia is attempting to channel cryptocurrency activity into licensed financial institutions while imposing investor tests, purchase limits, custody requirements and other controls.
The transition will take place in stages.
The central provisions governing cryptocurrency circulation begin taking effect September 1, 2026.
Professional market participants have a transition period extending into 2027 to obtain required licenses and bring operations into compliance.
Certain technical provisions involving the issuance and circulation of digital financial assets will not take effect until September 2027.
Specific existing digital-asset exchange operators also have transitional deadlines during 2027.
Those staggered implementation dates help explain why Sberbank expects regulated exchange volume to represent only a fraction of Russia’s overall cryptocurrency market during its first year.
Even so, moving between 3.5 trillion and 4 trillion rubles of cryptocurrency trading onto regulated venues would immediately create a substantial new segment of Russia’s financial system.
By 2029, Sberbank believes that figure could approach 7.5 trillion rubles annually.
The bank’s forecast also illustrates how Russia’s relationship with cryptocurrency has changed.
Authorities once focused heavily on restricting digital currencies because of concerns involving financial stability, investor protection and the ability of cryptocurrencies to operate outside state-controlled monetary systems.
The country is now constructing regulated exchanges, cryptocurrency custody systems, bank-based wallets and potentially crypto-backed lending products.
International sanctions have accelerated part of that evolution by giving Russia an additional incentive to develop payment systems that do not rely completely on conventional Western banking infrastructure.
At the same time, the government is attempting to ensure that greater cryptocurrency adoption does not weaken the ruble’s role inside Russia.
That explains why crypto remains prohibited for ordinary domestic payments even while investors can trade it and businesses can increasingly use it for international settlement.
Sberbank’s forecast suggests Russia does not expect the transition from largely unregulated and offshore activity to happen immediately.
With approximately 18 trillion rubles in estimated annual cryptocurrency transactions already occurring across the country, the projected 3.5 trillion to 4 trillion rubles entering regulated exchanges initially would represent only the beginning.
If the system develops as expected, however, Russia could enter the end of the decade with one of the world’s larger formally regulated cryptocurrency markets operating alongside its traditional banking system.